So, pundits are astounded by the results of the Iowa caucus. Well, I was too. Then I remember the thing that they always forget, that we almost always overlook: the campaigns themselves. The candidate, his/her stance on issues, the blocks of voters with whom they're strongest; these things matter, but not nearly as much as the people organizing the candidates' campaigns. Popularity among a majority of the population doesn't mean dick if you can't get any of them to go to the polls.
Relatively few people actually vote in any election, much less presidential primaries. One of the best things a campaign can do is to physically deliver its supporters to the polls. Seriously. Send people in cars to pick them up and fucking drive them there. Seth's 2nd Rule states: People Are Lazy. This whole election thing is kind of an abstraction for a lot of people who may be doing better or worse in a modern economy, but aren't particularly unhappy nor particularly happy with their lives. So they're average. Busy doing things that actually matter to them like making money, and spending time with their friends and family, means they may not feel compelled to take that time away to vote. It's not like it's particularly entertaining or anything.
Anyway, so odds are decent that Kerry and Edwards picked up ground and Gephardt did so miserably in Iowa because of their campaigners organizational tactics. I'd kind of thought that Dean had the upper hand here, but perhaps I was wrong.
On a sidenote, I took a closer look at Edwards recently and found the most amusing policy position to date:
(from Edwards's website)
"Stop Excessive Spending
Edwards will:
...
* Close government agencies that have outlived their usefulness, such as the Office of Thrift Supervision. "
Yes, I too am very concerned about OTS who have been overly supervising thrift (which we have a 1st amendment RIGHT to) in America for millions of years, right under our noses. I sincerely hope that Edwards makes this the focal point of his campaign and that protests are organized to disband the atrocity that is the Office of Thrift Supervision.
